My Article is from The American Spectator.
http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=13921
The article describes how the polls are showing more of a lead by the Democrats in the recent week or so. When Palin was first nominated for Vice President, GOP ratings went up causing the Democrats to get worried. However, after Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson and Obama's recent attacks with his TV ads, the Republicans have lost that lead. "Palin's approval numbers took a nosedive, going from 52% positive to 41% positive in the space of eight days, while her negatives ratings rose from 35% to 46%."
I find this article interesting because it kind of describes how the presidential race is never clearly in favor of one candidate. It varies week-by-week. One week Obama may be ahead, while the next McCain may be. The media plays a huge role because of their biases and the clips that they choose to show. While for this week Palin may be the victim, with the upcoming presidential debate, the next victim may be Obama, especially if foreign policy becomes a hot topic. Either way, it shows that neither party should never be comfortable in their position and it's always good to stay on edge. This is the reason why some people find politics to be entertainment in itself.
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7 comments:
Personally, I think the media (and maybe the internet) plays a big part in the results of polls, because the average citizen can be so easily influenced by what they see on the surface instead of making their own judgements. By the surface I mean the negative (or positive) title of an article, smear campaign ads, or feedback from political pundits. I believe quick changes we see in polls reflect the people's exposure to the things listed above, rather than their true beliefs and points of view. As we get closer to the election obviously we will get a better idea of where people's passions lie, because their will be more concrete information such as debates and interviews to base decisions off of, instead of lsitening to O'Reilly or reading a NYT headline. Once citizens reach the polls in November, hopefully they base their vote on these debates and interviews instead of attacking commercials etc.
I think that whenever one candidate is in the lead, the opposition redoubles their efforts and no party is really allowed to get to the point of having a comfortable advantage. Citizens may try to base their vote on the facts, but I believe that, at least subconsciously, they are still heavily influenced by the media’s portrayal of candidates. For example, a person may believe they agree with more of one candidate’s views, however, this could be because they are predisposed to be more receptive to that candidate. This could occur if they have seen more positive newspaper headlines, advertisements, or other media clips. Some people vote based on their overall impression of the candidate and this will depend on which news sources they have been paying attention to.
It is extremely difficult to tell which candidate is in the lead for the presediential race when it changes on a day-by-day basis. As the race is still a couple of months away, voters are influenced by media bias. However, as we draw closer and closer to the November election, the polls, statistics and projection numbers will become more accurate and valuable. In my opinion, I feel the upcoming debates will have a significant impact on this election. I know I am eager to watch Obama and McCain battle one another regarding economic policy and the war in Iraq. Also, what I believe will attract voters attention is Sarah Palin's ability to debate against Joe Biden. Palin has little experience on the national stage, so voters will be interested to see how she reacts to the pressure. Does anyone know if she had to debate at all while she was Governor of Alaska?
I think one reason that the GOP ratings went up with the announcing of Palin was simply that people were interested in the party's choice because she was a female, even without really knowing anything else about her. The interest factor was probably what lead to a significant portion of their gain in popularity. Now that people know what Palin is about and see that she supports all the regular republican stances, there is nothing to be too excited about and people's interest in her has gone down. If either party can find another interesting thing to draw attention to their party, their lead will probably jump up too. These leads caused by people's interest in something new are not really true leads and probably will not end up having much of an effect on the election in the end.
I feel people were first interested in Palin when the news was released that she was the vice presidential nominee. As time passed, people began to learn more and more about her. Once they became educated on her policies, people were able to make the true call if they approved of her or disproved. The beginning polls that were taken had the “surprise” factor, while the latter polls have the better depiction of what Americans feel.
I agree with Daniel and Annie that the big jump in the Republican support is due more to the initial interest factor of Palin rather than her views and opinions. Once people learned about her more and everything she supported, it became more clear who the avid supporters were and who was just caught up in the excitement.
Also, I agree that after Friday's debate and the upcoming debates, the polls will start shifting again, but will become more and more reliable as people will start firmly sticking to their views after watching the candidates clearly discuss their positions on a variety of issues.
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