Michigan

I believe the state of Michigan will favor Obama in the upcoming election for several reasons. First, the recent history of Michigan voters in presidential elections suggests a trend that should continue. Secondly, the current state of the economy and housing market, which affects the state of Michigan harder than most others in the union, has shed a negative light on the GOP and many citizens are looking for a change in administration. Finally, current congressional and senate races can be looked at in order to receive some clues or insight on the presidential election.
First off, the state of Michigan (according to the Pew Forum) is 49% Democratic or Democratic leaning compared to 33% Republican and 11% Independent. Over recent the recent history of presidential elections (since 1992), Michigan has voted for the Democratic candidate for President by an average of 7.5%. Given the current state of America right now, I just don’t see any reason why this liberal trend would not continue, given the far left policies proposed by Obama. In the 2004 congressional race most districts in Michigan voted for GOP candidates, and after the economic crisis and the troubles that Michigan’s auto industry has experienced, many citizens may buck that in favor of change.
The second significant factor in trying to determine who will win Michigan in the 2008 election is examining how the current financial crisis and ongoing credit crunch affects Michigan. One of the reasons Michigan thrived earlier in the century is one of the reasons for the state currently holding the highest unemployment rate in the nation; the auto industry. Thousands of auto workers in Michigan have been laid off because of cutbacks in production, outsourced jobs, and overall lower profits for GM and Ford. This has negatively affected many families’ abilities to pay their mortgage (perhaps a sub-prime one), causing them to sell their house at a lower price than they bought it or foreclose. Michigan’s major cities such as Detroit and Flint have witnessed many foreclosures and have continually deteriorated since the 1990s (perhaps one of the reasons for voting Democratic over the past 12 years). Many of Obama’s policies, such as “redistributing wealth”, sound appealing to the constituents of Michigan who are just looking for a little change for the better.
Finally, we can examine the current polls in senate races and the presidential race to see if that could give us a hint at where the state is leaning. In the 2006 senate election the Democratic candidate won by 16%. The 2008 Michigan senate polls (RCP average) show that the Democratic candidate is going to win by a margin of 27%. According the Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters Obama holds 16% lead over McCain and the RCP average has Obama leading by a percentage point less than that.
My final answer, in a sense, is that Obama will win the state of Michigan rather easily. I am going to predict that he wins by about 12%. I am estimating a lower percentage than most polls because I really believe that many of the younger voters and potentially the race factor may make the election closer in some areas, perhaps Michigan is one.